← CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
decks
4
(4.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
13-7-7
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
54.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1438
· median 1402
· range 1310–1638
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1171
Q3 1403
1736
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.2% | +8.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.7% | +8.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
